The Genie Goals Black Friday Playbook explores what's happening in the world of ecommerce in Q4 2025, and explains how you can have a successful end to the year.
Peak season is shifting faster than most brands are prepared for. Rising ad costs, evolving customer behaviour, and new channels gaining traction mean the traditional Black Friday playbook no longer works. Happily, our performance marketing agency Genie Goals wrote one that does.
The Genie Goals Black Friday Playbook is based on over a decade of work with successful brands, and backed up with data from Google, Meta, AWIN, IMRG, Fospha, and Triple Whale. It breaks down what's happening, what it means for your strategy, and how you can win in 2025.
"Peak has always been the biggest moment in the calendar," says Genie Goals CEO, Emily Long. "But this year the stakes are higher. Customers know the drill, and they're looking for brands who make their decision easier. The winners will be those who plan ahead, stay agile, and make every pound work harder."
Ad costs are rising, but returns simply aren't keeping pace. CPMs and CPCs climb faster than revenue generation, and new customer acquisition costs more every year. The question facing most brands is straightforward: how do you sustain growth when traditional advertising channels are becoming less effective?
The answer isn't spending more, or cutting budget, either. The brands that are gaining ground make smarter allocation decisions and are getting more from every penny spent. This means abandoning siloed, single-channel approaches, and instead focusing on diversified strategies across the entire customer journey.
Last year offered us some valuable lessons. We saw shoppers become more selective, sales windows compressed, and discounts dipping deeper. The brands that performed best didn't go all-in on peak week, but rather spread their budget across the entire funnel - top, middle, and bottom awareness - which let them protect margins whilst driving growth.
This changes how you should approach 2025. Peak season isn't a sprint during one week. It's a marathon with phases, each requiring different messaging, channels, and investment strategies.
Two forces are reshaping peak season.
AI is transforming search. How customers discover products and make purchasing decisions through search is evolving rapidly. Brands must stay ahead to keep their offers visible and competitive.
Creators are becoming the primary voice. Social commerce is driven by creator relationships and authenticity, not traditional brand messaging. This has real consequences for budget allocation, particularly for brands accustomed to paid performance marketing.
Data shows a clear pattern: brands that prepare early and diversify outperform those that concentrate budget in a few areas. Our benchmarking research reveals the ways in which spend is shifting across channels and what returns should, or could, look like.
Most brands have untapped opportunity in the form of budget to reach new audiences and drive incremental revenue, but you have to understand that your strategy might need to shift to win here.
Retention matters as much as acquisition. Coverage tends to emphasise new customer wins, but protecting and maximising value from existing customers is equally important for maintaining margins during peak season.
Pressure-test your budget allocation. Compare planned spend against current benchmarks. Look for gaps and underinvestment relative to opportunity.
Start building your creative strategy now. Sharper creative and better optimisation drive CTR and CVR gains. Invest in creative development early rather than rushing it further down the line.
Build a practical plan, not a last-minute scramble. Create a detailed action plan covering budget splits, channel allocation, creative approach, and retention tactics that you can execute over several months.
Lean into your affiliate strategy. Affiliates continue to evolve as a channel and help you reach new audiences whilst diversifying your mix in ways that reduce risk and improve returns.
Peak season remains the biggest retail moment of the year, but the playbook has shifted. Success in 2025 requires preparation, diversification, and a shift from a one-week sprint to a multiphase strategy. Brands that move early will outpace those still operating from 2024's assumptions.
To learn how you can win Black Friday in 2025, download the playbook now. For further insights, watch Genie Goal's Black Friday webinar, featuring experts from Google, Meta, and AWIN.